Solar Will Outproduce Coal in ERCOT for the First Time in 2026

What the EIA Forecast Actually Says

In its most recent Short-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA projects that solar generation in ERCOT will reach about 78 billion kilowatt-hours (BkWh) in 2026, compared with roughly 60 BkWh from coal — the first time annual solar output is expected to surpass coal in the Texas grid. (Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Today in Energy, May 13, 2026.)

The shift has been building for years. According to the EIA, solar's share of ERCOT generation climbed from about 4% to 12% between 2021 and 2025, while coal's share fell from about 19% to 13% over the same period. Solar already outproduced coal on a monthly basis for the first time back in March 2025.

Natural gas remains by far the dominant fuel on the Texas grid, averaging about 44% of ERCOT generation from 2021 to 2025. So this milestone is about solar overtaking coal — not about renewables taking over the grid. The EIA also notes there are currently no plans to build new coal plants in ERCOT.

Because these figures come from a forecast rather than a final, audited tally, the exact numbers may shift as the year plays out — but the direction of travel is clear and has been consistent for several years.

Texas Generation Mix Snapshot (EIA Forecast, 2026)

Figures are EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts reported in Today in Energy (May 13, 2026). BkWh = billion kilowatt-hours.

Why More Solar Doesn't Automatically Cut Your Bill

It's tempting to assume that more cheap solar on the grid means lower electricity bills. The reality is more nuanced. Solar floods the grid with low-cost power in the middle of the day, which tends to push daytime wholesale prices down. But most Texas homes use the most electricity in the late afternoon and evening — exactly when solar output fades and natural gas plants set the price.

That's why a greener generation mix can improve grid stability and lower midday costs while summer evening peaks still drive price volatility. Battery storage is increasingly important here: batteries charge on cheap midday solar and discharge into the evening peak, which is one reason ERCOT has leaned on solar-plus-storage to get through recent summers. One of the largest projects expected online in Texas this year, the Tehuacana Creek 1 solar-and-battery facility, pairs roughly 837 MW of solar with on-site storage.

The Consumer Takeaway: Match the Plan to Your Usage

Two practical points follow from this milestone for Texas shoppers:

• "Renewable" and "cheap" are not the same thing. A plan's renewable percentage is a separate decision from its price. Some 100% renewable plans cost more than standard plans; some cost less. Don't assume a green grid means green plans are automatically the bargain.
• Evening-heavy usage still favors price certainty. Because volatility concentrates in the post-sunset summer peak, a fixed-rate plan sized to your real usage remains the simplest way to avoid nasty surprises — even on a greener grid.
• The cheapest plan depends on YOUR usage, not the headline. This is the "1,000 kWh illusion" in action: a plan advertised as cheapest at exactly 1,000 kWh can be a poor deal at the higher usage a hot Texas summer produces.

The way to cut through it is to compare plans at the usage your home actually runs, using the real effective rate rather than the advertised teaser rate. Our 1,000 kWh illusion guide explains why the advertised rate is so often misleading, and the True Cost Calculator shows the real effective rate at your usage level.

Related Texas Electricity Resources