Summer 2026 Texas Electricity Bills Forecast to Rise About 7% — What Shoppers Can Do

What the Forecast Actually Says

NEADA — a nonprofit association of the state officials who administer energy-assistance programs — raised its summer cooling-cost projections in early June 2026 and warned that electricity costs are expected to climb in every U.S. region this summer, from about 4.9% to 13.8% depending on where you live (as reported by Moneywise on June 10, 2026, in an interview with NEADA executive director Mark Wolfe).

Texas sits in the Census Bureau's West South Central region, grouped with Arkansas, Louisiana and Oklahoma. For that region, NEADA's forecast puts the average cooling-season electricity cost at about $890, an increase of roughly $61, or 7.4%, over last summer. It's important to read that correctly: this is a four-state regional average, not a Texas-only number, and it is a seasonal estimate — your household's actual cost depends on your usage, your TDU territory, and the retail plan you've signed up for.

Source: NEADA summer 2026 forecast, as reported by Moneywise (June 10, 2026). Figures are regional averages and approximate.

Why Bills Are Climbing This Summer

NEADA describes the summer of 2026 as a kind of "perfect storm" for cooling costs, and the factors it cites all apply squarely to Texas:

• Extreme heat. Forecasters expect one of the hotter summers on record, which means more hours of air conditioning. The EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook likewise assumes above-average temperatures and projects U.S. electricity generation rising about 3% versus summer 2025.
• AI data-center demand. Wolfe singles out data centers as one of the biggest forces pushing power costs up; Texas was cited as home to the most data centers in its region. Surging large-load demand is the same trend behind ERCOT's record summer peak forecast of about 92,211 MW.
• Grid-upgrade costs. Utilities are spending heavily to expand and harden the grid, and a share of those costs is recovered from ratepayers over time — in Texas, through the regulated TDU delivery charge.
• Costlier air conditioners. NEADA notes that new tariffs on imported AC equipment are raising the price of the units and parts themselves.

The backdrop is real financial strain: NEADA estimates roughly one in six U.S. households is already behind on energy bills, with residential utility debt projected to approach $23 billion by year's end.

The Part You Control: Your Plan at Your Real Usage

A regional forecast is an average across millions of households. What it can't tell you is the one thing that most determines your bill: the effective rate of the specific plan you're on, measured at your actual usage. That's where most Texans quietly overpay.

Here's the trap that summer makes worse. Texas plans are marketed on the advertised price at exactly 1,000 kWh — but summer air conditioning routinely pushes a home from around 1,000 kWh in spring to 1,800–2,500 kWh in August. Many "cheapest" plans rely on a bill credit that only triggers near 1,000 kWh, so their effective rate climbs sharply at the higher usage you actually hit in July and August. The plan that looked cheapest in May can be one of the more expensive plans in August. We call this the 1,000 kWh illusion, and it's the reason a 7% regional increase can land far harder on a household that never re-checked its plan at summer usage.

A fixed-rate plan is also the simplest hedge against a hot summer. Heat waves spike ERCOT wholesale prices, which flow straight through to variable, indexed and "wholesale passthrough" plans — but a locked fixed rate doesn't move when the grid gets tight. (Note that the regulated TDU delivery charge is separate from your energy rate and is identical across every provider in your area, so it doesn't change which plan is cheapest.)

A Practical Checklist Before the Worst of the Heat

Related Texas Electricity Resources